Ukrainian officials say Russian frontline casualties are rising to levels that cannot be sustained under Russia’s current system of voluntary recruitment.
“In December, 35,000 occupiers were eliminated and this has been confirmed with video evidence,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a Monday evening address. “In November, 30,000, and in October, 26,000 occupiers were neutralised.”
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskii supported these figures, tweeting on Telegram: “The enemy lost over 33,000 personnel in December.
This number accounts only for confirmed video cases; actual losses are higher.”
Syrskii noted that December 2025 marked “the first month when unmanned systems of the Ukrainian Defence Forces neutralised roughly as many Russian servicemen as Russia conscripted in the same period.”
Russia has largely avoided using regular conscripts in Ukraine, relying instead on contract volunteers for its so-called “special military operation
” On December 27, Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov told state broadcaster Suspilne that Russia had recruited 403,000 personnel in 2025, averaging 33,583 per month, with plans to slightly increase that to 34,083 per month in 2026.
If Ukraine’s casualty figures are accurate, Russia’s losses may no longer be sustainable, potentially forcing the Kremlin to deploy its active reserves.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War noted in November that forward reserve units in Belgorod had begun receiving heavy equipment, including howitzers, thermobaric weapons, and all-terrain vehicles.
Analysts warn that using reservists or conscripts could pose a major political risk for President Vladimir Putin, who has largely shielded Russian society from the war’s direct effects. Ukraine estimates that nearly 420,000 Russian troops were killed or wounded last year.
Zelenskyy first highlighted the rising Russian mortality rate on December 16, saying, “The increase in these figures is the result of the right decisions. There must be more decisions like these.” He credited Ukraine’s ramped-up drone production in 2025 as a key factor.
The president also announced the appointment of former First Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov as defence minister on Friday, praising his involvement in drone development and digitalisation of public services.
Outgoing Defence Minister Denys Shmyal, moved to the energy portfolio, was recognised for achieving a production target of 1,000 intercept drones per day by the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to claim it aims to capture the remaining areas of Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson—territories it has annexed on paper.
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