2026 Expected to Become Second-Hottest Year on Record as El Niño Intensifies Global Warming

The year 2026 is on course to become the second-hottest year ever recorded, as an exceptionally strong El Niño weather phenomenon adds to the effects of human-induced global warming, the European Union’s climate monitoring agency has warned.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service disclosed this in its monthly climate bulletin released on Friday, noting that 2026 still has a 20 per cent possibility of matching or surpassing 2024 as the hottest year in recorded history.

The agency also warned that global temperatures in 2026 are virtually certain to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, raising further concerns about the growing impact of climate change.

According to the report, the average global temperature between 2023 and 2026 is also expected to exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold established as a key target under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.

Copernicus further revealed that October 2026 was the hottest October ever recorded, with average global surface air temperatures reaching 1.75 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, defined as the period between 1850 and 1900.

It marked the third consecutive month in which global temperatures exceeded the 1.5-degree Celsius benchmark.

Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates the Copernicus service, said October continued the trend of extraordinary global warming, with record temperatures recorded across the atmosphere and surface oceans.

She explained that the exceptionally strong El Niño phenomenon was adding further heat to a climate already experiencing significant warming due to human activities.

The warning comes as countries prepare for the United Nations’ two-week COP31 climate summit in Turkey, scheduled to begin on Monday.

The meeting follows a year marked by devastating climate-related events, including deadly flooding in Nepal, extreme heatwaves across Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.

El Niño Expected to Intensify

Global weather forecasters have warned that the current El Niño phenomenon could become one of the strongest ever recorded, with its peak expected later this year.

Copernicus reported that the developing weather pattern established a new temperature record in a key region of the Pacific Ocean last month.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

It influences global weather patterns and can increase the likelihood of extreme weather conditions, including droughts, heavy rainfall and flooding.

Scientists have also warned that the phenomenon could intensify existing global warming and contribute to making 2027 the hottest year ever recorded.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries committed to keeping global temperature increases well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

However, the United Nations warned in September that the world was likely to exceed the long-term 1.5-degree target within the coming years.

Climate scientists have repeatedly stressed the need for countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly those generated by the burning of fossil fuels.

They argue that urgent action is necessary to limit the period during which global temperatures remain above the 1.5-degree threshold and bring warming levels down as quickly as possible.

The latest warning has renewed concerns about the growing consequences of climate change and the need for stronger international cooperation to reduce emissions and protect vulnerable communities from extreme weather conditions.

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